Eight NBA Draft Thoughts

  1. Good move by The Goldies, thinning their backcourt for a chance to add a 19 year old who averaged nearly 15 per in the ACC. Also, a Moneyball move. As the A’s have done next door, recognizing that due to CBAs the most important time to have a player is his first 5-6 years is the key. After that he becomes exorbitantly expensive (if he’s any good). It took Mullin a few years to figure this reality out (see contracts for Murphy, Dunleavey, Foyle, Richardson and Fischer inked early in Mullin’s tenure). Now he seems to realize that the greatest value is Swisher/Haren types: cost-controlled, yet highly productive. Ellis/Biedrins/Wright fit that mold.
  2. In addition, these types of players hold TREMENDOUS value to other teams. I think the T-wolves might be looking to make a deal.
  3. At the opposite end of the spectrum is Danny Ainge and the Cs. Trading young to get back old is almost always a bad move. When the Sacto Kings acquired CWebb for 31 year old Mitch Richmond, it determined the course of those two franchises for the next five years. While Green is unlikely to be as productive as CWebb, the team who gets older will regret the deal within three years.
  4. On the broadcast Jay Bilas made the point that it was “like two drafts”, meaning that because of the rule change that prevents HS players from entering, this draft was much deeper than usual. Agreed!
  5. But the depth ran out at #10, when the Sacto Kings nabbed Spencer Hawes. I forsee a short and unproductive career from this kid. It has been pretty clearly established that 7 footers taken outside the Top 5 rarely develop into anything – if they were any good, they would have been picked earlier! A few recent examples: 2006 Patrick O’Bryant (#9), Saer Sene (10); 2004 Rafael Arajuo (10); 2003 Chris Kaman (6); 2000 Joel Pryzbilla (9).  Some others off the top of my head Eric Leckner, Adonal Foyle, Todd Fuller.  Good luck with that Sacto!
  6. My Dad – Dick Sr. – raves about Jeff Green.  I have my doubts.  Of course in years past I have been low on (you know, the opposite of being high on) Kevin Johnson, DWade and others….so what the hell do I know?
  7. McHale gags (again).  The whole Corey Brewer as athletic stopper story took a hit the other day in John Hollinger’s analysis on ESPN.com:
    Corey Brewer rates way lower than most people would imagine. Brewer’s rating of 462.4 makes him a marginal first-rounder, and that’s only because of the paucity of Euros in this year’s draft. Since this pretty much flies in the face of conventional wisdom, which has Brewer rated as a top-five or at worst top-10 pick, I have to point out that his numbers don’t match the general consensus on his athleticism.

    Brewer’s 8.5 rebound rate teetered on red-flag territory, and he blocked only 15 shots all season, which is quite low for a 6-9 NBA hopeful. Additionally, his ballhandling is a concern — his -0.74 pure point ratio was pretty poor for a perimeter player. Brewer brings his share of positives too, but I’m not sure teams will get what they think they’re getting if they take him high in the lottery.

  8. I watch quite a bit of Oregon hoops, as a Duck myself.  I like Aaron Brooks.  I feel he can play in the league as a change-of-pace Boykins-type player.  Not sure how he fits in with Yao/McGrady.  Maybe Adelman can figure it out.
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